Banks are short more than $1 trillion in capital, this analyst says, who fears the shortfall will only get worse

The new year is nearly upon us, and one idea for where to invest is the banking sector, whose margins benefit from the high interest rates, at not terribly demanding values.

That claim may surprise those who think the US banking industry has some $2.2 trillion in capital. But he whittles that figure in several ways. First, he notes, there’s a difference between book equity and tangible equity, the latter of which is used by banking regulators to evaluate solvency. It’s a narrower definition, excluding items like goodwill and deferred tax assets, that brings the total down to $1.49 trillion from $2.22 trillion.

Then, drawing on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data, he subtracts what’s called accumulated other comprehensive income. “Thanks to QE and now QT, all sorts of assets have become negative return propositions for banks and nonbanks alike. If the coupon pays less than the funding costs, you’re losing money,” he says. That takes capital down to $1.23 trillion.

Now comes the more controversial part. First he notes to market losses on loans and securities created during 2020 and 2021, for the impact of this year’s Fed rate hikes. That right there is enough to push banks into insolvency, with some $1.74 trillion of losses from marking to the market.

Another $794 billion losses comes if bank holdings of US Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities and state and municipal securities are also marked to the market. Put it all together, on Whalen’s calculations, and banks have a $1.3 trillion shortfall as of the second quarter.

Granted, and this is very important, banks do not have to mark their assets to the market. So what’s the worry? That exception isn’t infinite — banks are allowed to ignore mark-to-market losses so long as they have the capacity and intent to do so. “Even if the bank holds these low-coupon assets created during 2020-2021 in portfolio to maturity, cash flow losses and poor returns could eventually force a sale,” Whalen says.

He performed a similar analysis on JPMorgan Chase JPM,
which he calls one of the better managed banks. Jamie Dimon’s bunch has a $16 billion shortfall as of the second quarter — and a $58 billion deficit if the mark-to-market adjustment is a steeper 17.5% — on Whalen’s numbers.

The bigger question is when those asset sales could possibly occur. “Sales of assets will occur slowly but lenders may force issue on collateral that is 20pts underwater,” he told MarketWatch in an email. And what’s unsustainable now is set to get worse. “Higher rates just make eventual mess bigger,” Whalen added.

The market

US stock futures ES00

NQ00
were pointing higher in early action. Commodities were moving up, with gains for both oil CL
and gold GC00.
The dollar DXY
was lower.

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The buzz

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 pm at the Brookings Institution, the current employer of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. There are two other Fed speakers as well, with Gov. Michelle Bowman due to speak about banks, as Gov. Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club.

It’s a big day on the economics calendar even excluding the Powell speech. The ADP employment report, the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, the advanced report on trade for October, Chicago PMI, job openings and pending home sales all are due for release, with the Beige Book of economic anecdotes due at 2 pm

In the eurozone, year-over-year inflation slowed to 10% in November from 10.6%.

CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD
slumped after the cybersecurity firm guided for slowing subscription revenue growth.

NetApp NTAP
also declined after the cloud computing company guided to earnings far below analyst estimates.

Horizon Therapeutics HZNP
rallied after the Irish drugmaker said it’s in talks to be purchased, with heavy hitters including Amgen AMGN,
Johnson & Johnson JNJ
and Sanofi FR:SAN
circling the company.

An Alzheimer’s drug from Biogen BIIB
and Eisai JP:4523
moderately reduced cognitive decline but also comes with side effect.

Walt Disney Dis
said its returning CEO, Bob Iger, will initiate organization and operational changes that could result in impaired charges. It flagged the Disney Media and Entertainment Division, which includes its streaming services, for changes.

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Top tickers

Here are the most active stock-market tickers as of 6 am Eastern.

Ticker

Security name

TSLA

Tesla

GME

GameStop

nio

nio

AMC

AMC Entertainment

Muln

Mullen Automotive

baba

alibaba

XPEV

XPeng

OTIC

otonomy

CRWD

CrowdStrike Holdings

APE

AMC Entertainment preferred

The chart

Vanguard

Hardship withdrawals have reached an all-time high, according to data from Vanguard. Such withdrawals are only permitted for an immediate and heavy financial need and subject to income taxes and a 10% early withdrawal penalty.

Random reads

This 22-year-old sells human bones for a living.

There’s another World Cup going on in Qatar — for camels.

Lobsta Mickey — a giant Mickey Mouse statue with lobster claws — is back in Boston.

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